UK: record redundancies in Sep-20
- The unemployment rate increased again to 4.76% in Sep-20, which was only 1bp above my forecast. A rise in redundancies to a record high of 314k is driving up the UR amid a stagnant labour market. Vacancies continue to imply that the UR will peak near 7.5%.- Average wages have now extended their recovery back to their pre-Covid trend. That bullish experience is not one that most employees will recognise, though, amid job losses in low paying industries creating a supportive sampling effect.
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