UK: recovery lags in most sectors through June
- The rebound in some survey balances and sectoral indicators has raised relatively bullish expectations about the recovery. However, balances are not growth, and the earliest reporting sectors happen to be the swiftest to emerge from lockdown.- In June, a disappointing proportion of businesses resumed trading, with only 17% of the closures ending alongside a precisely matching return of job vacancies.
- I see recent news reflecting the relative timings rather than the strength of GDP growth, which would lead to a disappointment and more dovish pressure.
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