UK: reprofiled GDP doesn’t create dovish slack
- UK GDP was revised higher ahead of a surprisingly sizeable Brexit-related shock in Nov-19, which left the level in line with my forecast. Post-recovery from that temporary shock, the economy is likely to seem tighter, despite no growth in 4Q19.- The MPC has been risibly rattled by the data recently, despite no significant disappointment to its forecasts. I still expect it to resist cutting and then hike after economic strength is proved, but the risk of a hyperactive response is rising.
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