UK: return to real labour begins in Jul-20
- The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in July but not because of falling employment. Normalisation in the labour force participation rate meant supply increased faster than demand. Low vacancies should drive the UR toward 7.5%.- Average weekly earnings have followed the “real-time” median and surged, with ex-bonus pay almost back to pre-Covid levels in July. The end of furlough for many workers raises hours and pay ahead of slack bearing down on the latter’s growth.
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