Report
Philip Rush
EUR 116.70 For Business Accounts Only

UK: still defying dismally dire expectations

- The unemployment rate dipped back to 3.9% in March contrary to widespread expectations for a rise. Low response rates seem to have biased this down slightly.
- Unfortunately, this surprise says more about the dire quality of forecasts than the economic state. There was never going to be an immediate surge under the ILO definition, and economists should know better, especially at the BoE.
- A higher UR is inevitable, with vacancies currently pointing to 5.5-6.5%. Claims have risen much more, but applications need not continue (it is still only 60% in the US) nor qualify under the ILO definition. I remain much less gloomy short-term.
Provider
Heteronomics
Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Analysts
Philip Rush

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