UK: stumbling into a fall for winter
- GDP growth continued to slow in September to a mere 1.1% m-o-m. Losing momentum at this rate implies over a quarter of the lockdown hit would fail to be mechanically recovered. A second lockdown in November is set to compound the economic damage.- Mobility metrics have only fallen to August levels as the public appears to be reluctant to stay home this time. However, prohibitions on economic activity mean the hit to output is still set to be large, where I assume a level similar to June.
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