UK: uncertainty effect intensifies in Sep-19
- The services PMI disappointed expectations by falling 1.1-points to 49.5 in Sep-19. All three UK PMIs are now below the threshold level of 50 that notionally indicates no change, but rising uncertainty effects bias these data to exaggerate the hit.- I expect GDP to be unchanged through August and only rise 0.1% m-o-m in September, but that would still deliver 0.4% q-o-q growth in 3Q19, absent revisions. Manufacturing surveys warn the quarter could turn weaker, though.
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