UK: unemployment accelerates in Aug-20
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in Aug-20, with the 0.2pp surprise associated with revisions from a methodological change. The underlying rise was slightly smaller than we assumed, but still marked an acceleration consistent with our 4.8% forecast for Q3.- Vacancies are rising but remain consistent with a peak UR between 7% and 8%. Stricter lockdown restrictions than we assume could breach that, though. A normalisation in average wages implies unit cost pressures that offset the disinflationary implications.
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