UK: vacancies reveal risk to recent resilience
- Headline labour market data were broadly bullish, despite Brexit uncertainty, as employment and wages continued to grow, with the latter surprisingly strong. Revisions and a normalised bonus share supported total pay growth.- The fall in vacancies trims hawkish urges, as they imply either a structural improvement or pressure on the unemployment rate towards 4.2-4.4%. Business cutbacks in a no-deal Brexit scenario will probably swiftly take the UR beyond that.
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