UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder
- The LFS unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Apr-19, while employment exceeded expectations. The temporary maintenance related demand shock need not affect employment or inflationary pressures over policy-relevant horizons.- Wage growth was far stronger than expected, partly because of the usual pattern of upwards revisions, but underlying pay also surged in April. The bonus share still looks low, but the finance part prone to immediate rebound has already recovered.
- Labour market data are still showing hawkish pressures, but the recent hit to output is likely to dissuade strong guidance for a couple of months.
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