UK: wages surge before vacancies risk crystalises
- Headline labour market data were mixed in Jul-19 as wages surged, supported by positive revision tendencies, but the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.- Robust employment growth didn’t keep pace with the labour force amid falling vacancies. Some of this was a cohort sampling effect, but softer underlying trends around a no-deal Brexit means I expect further increases in the UR.
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