UK: winter is coming to crush the recovery
- A second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is motivating new activity restrictions, which seem set to get tighter as seasonality raises infections. I now assume this reaction function occurs and crushes the recovery over the winter.- Behavioural changes are likely to be reinforced by repeated restrictions, further impeding the recovery. The deficit outlook is boosted in response, and I now expect the BoE to announce £75bn more gilt purchases in Nov, and £50bn in Feb.
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