UK wrap: behind the blinding Brexit mirage
- Economy: Trends in official activity data have remained resilient to Brexit uncertainty, although surveys are susceptible. Inflation’s dip below target should end in April, and domestic pressure is building.- Monetary policy: Political uncertainty and weak survey data raised the option value of delaying, but the postponed disorderly Brexit risk and robust real data mean the BoE should hike Bank rate again soon.
- Brexit: There is no stable compelling majority for anything, but a fudged temporary deal still seems the most likely outcome, while no deal remains the unavoidable default risk for Oct-19 or beyond.
The PDF contains the full annotated chartpack covering my UK macro story.
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