UK Wrap: Brexit bifurcation in bullish trends
- Economy: The post-referendum growth trend pace has re-established at 0.15% m-o-m, which appears to remain above-potential. Inflation should moderate further but remain above-target.- Monetary policy: The BoE delivered a slightly delayed rate hike in August. Bullish economic trends mean I expect the next hike in Feb-19. That is highly contingent on Brexit outcomes in the coming months.
- Brexit: A smooth Brexit transition requires resolution on the Irish border, not the future trade deal, and another Europhile fudge remains likely. A ‘hard’ Brexit is the stable end-state equilibrium, in my view.
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