UK wrap: bullish trends return as risk subsides
- Activity: Surveys are biased by uncertainty and should rebound towards the official data now political risk has subsided. I see underlying trends as more bullish than widely realised.- Inflation: Shocks from Sterling and administered prices are set to drive further falls in inflation, while airfares may stoke surprises. Underlying resilience should pressure policy.
- Monetary policy: Political uncertainty and weak survey data raised the option value of fence-sitting. Clearer signals should encourage a return of hawkish pressures and an Aug-19 rate hike.
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