UK Wrap: Economic stability, policy turbulence
This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.
- Activity: The economy appears to be recovering from its soft patch, but imbalances leave large risks.
- Inflation: July was soft again, but further rises are likely. My forecast CPI inflation peak remains 2.9%.
- BoE: The BoE backtracked from a hawkish leap and now points to a hike near my May-18 call.
- Politics: Withdrawal negotiations have begun, but a new trade deal will come later with disorderly risks.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
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