UK Wrap: Policymakers preparing for lift off
This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.
- Activity: Slowdown was sharp in Q1, but signs suggest stabilisation, while imbalances leave large risks.
- Inflation: Easter distorted the GBP-related trend rise. A pause before hitting a 3% peak looks likely.
- BoE: The BoE is pointing to a Nov-17 hike, but I expect the first in May-18, with risks skewed earlier.
- Politics: Withdrawal negotiations have begun, but a new trade deal will come later with disorderly risks.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
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