UK Wrap: Settling on the new normal
This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.- Economy: The GDP outlook has improved, with growth near 0.4% q-o-q. Strength at end-16 was spurious and the subsequent slowdown shrugged off. Inflation has probably peaked at 3.0% y-o-y.
- Monetary policy: The BoE has begun its hiking cycle back to neutral. Periodic hawkish surprises will likely deliver a much brisker pace than priced. Gaps are more important than growth rates to the MPC.
- Brexit: Recent transition proposals reduce disorderly risks while withdrawal negotiations are ongoing. Political problems point to a ‘hard’ Brexit end point, despite some support to soften the position.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.