UK Wrap: Space to keep hiking
- Economy: The monthly GDP growth trend remains above-potential at 0.15% m-o-m, but bad weather and construction constrain Q1. Inflation should fall toward target in 2018, albeit with a mid-year rise.- Monetary policy: The BoE is close to hiking again amid the prospect of excess demand building while inflation is above target. I still expect rate hikes every six months back to a neutral rate near 2%.
- Brexit: Agreement on a “stand-still†transition reduces disorderly risks. Irish issues remain until zero tariffs are confirmed. Political positioning and arithmetic still point to a ‘hard’ Brexit end point.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
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