Midweek Macro Musings - ‘Liquidity trap’, my foot!
On the face of it, China succeeded in defying its critics by engineering yet another round of face-saving expansion. Industrial production, for example, has picked up to 6.3% pace only twice exceeded in the past 18 months (though those of a suspicious bent would note that 3-, 6-, and 12-month annualizations of this number all coincide a little too neatly for comfort). Not hurting the cause has been an heroic expansion of the money supply emanating from the commercial banks (rather than directly from the PBoC) who have sent M1 soaring at a real rate of climb only exceeded these past two decades during the notorious, post-LEH stimulus effort of 2009-10
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