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Event update: Power Utilities - NTPC – a huge push to reduce under recovery

Overall electricity generation in FY2019 was 1376BU, a growth of 5.2% yoy. Excluding renewables, growth was 3.6%. However, growth in overall generation in March 2019/Q4FY19 was muted at 2.7%/1.6% yoy.  Note that coal based generation grew by 3.7% and FY19 PLF of coal-based power plants stood at 61%, below our expectations of 62% (vs 60.5% in FY18). Detailed plant-wise key operating metrics (PLFs and availability) are illustrated on pages 3-12. Key takeaways for Q4FY19/FY19 operating metrics are mentioned below:

• NTPC: PLF of NTPC’s coal-based power plants were 79.5% (-65bp yoy) in Q4FY19. Q4FY19 PAF for NTPC coal based power station was 93% (+707bps yoy). PAF for the troubled power plants improved sharplyin Q4FY19. As a result, under recovery is expected to reduce substantially during Q4FY19
• JSW Energy: PLF of JSW’s Vijaynagar power plant was 36% (-1370 bps yoy) while the Ratnagiri plant reported PLF of 76% (+1509bp yoy).
• Tata Power: Mundra’s PLF were 89.7% (-63bp yoy). FY19 PAF was 80% (normative is 80%). Maithon PLF was 81.2% (-844bps yoy).  FY19 PAF was 86% (normative is 85%).
• CESC: Budge Budge PLF was 90% ( flat yoy), Haldia’s PLF was 74% (-977bp yoy) and Dhariwal PLF was 43% (-468 bp yoy).  Dhariwal flexi coal scheme PPA expired in December 2018.
• Jindal Power: Tamnar–I’s PLF was 31.8% (+319bp yoy) and Tamnar–II’s was 36.9% (+415bp yoy).