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Event update: Power Utilities - NTPC reported 96% PAF in February 2019

Overall electricity generation in February 2019 was 1.1% yoy to ~101BU. Excluding renewables, generation declined by 0.8% yoy. YTDFY19 growth in generation (including renewables) and generation (excluding renewables) was 3.8% and 5.5% yoy.  We revise our estimate of generation growth to 5.6% yoy in FY19E (vs earlier est of 6.5-7%) on account of muted demand in last two months. YTDFY19 PLF of coal-based power plants stood at 61% (vs 60.1% in YTDFY18). Detailed plant-wise key operating metrics (PLFs and availability) are illustrated on pages 3-12. Key takeaways for Q3FY19 /YTDFY19 operating metrics are mentioned below:

• NTPC: PLF of NTPC’s coal-based power plants were 77.6% (-279bp yoy). YTDFY19 PAF for NTPC coal based power station was 86.% (+92bps yoy).  PAF was highest in Feb 2019 at 96% (+943bps yoy)
• JSW Energy: PLF of JSW’s Vijaynagar power plant was 35% (-1061 bps yoy) while the Ratnagiri plant reported PLF of 68% (+1327bp yoy). JSW is supplying in short term market from Vijayanagar TPP.
• Tata Power: Mundra’s PLF were 87.3% (-1004bp yoy). YTDFY19 PAF was 79%, +189 bps yoy (normative is 80%). Maithon PLF was 83.3% (-898bps yoy).  YTD PAF was 85% (normative is 85%).
• CESC: Budge Budge PLF was 93.% (+549bps yoy), Haldia’s PLF was 77.3% (-1161bp yoy) and Dhariwal PLF was 35.9% (-1027 bp yoy).  Dhariwal flexi coal scheme PPA expired in December 2018.

·      Jindal Power: Tamnar–I’s PLF was 27.5% (-18bp yoy) and Tamnar–II’s was 35.2% (-154bp yoy).