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Event update: Power Utilities; Q3FY19 generation grew by 6.8%

Overall electricity generation in December 2018/ Q3FY19 grew by 4.1%/6.8% yoy to ~109BU/338BU. Excluding renewables, growth was 3.6% yoy/6.2% yoy. YTDFY19 growth in generation (including renewables) and generation (excluding renewables) was 4.7% and 6.4% yoy.  Our estimate of generation growth is 7% yoy in FY19E. YTDFY19 PLF of coal-based power plants stood at 61% (vs 59.5% in YTDFY18). Detailed plant-wise key operating metrics (PLFs and availability) are illustrated on pages 3-12. Key takeaways for Q3FY19 /YTDFY19 operating metrics are mentioned below:

• NTPC: PLF of NTPC’s coal-based power plants were 79.5% (190bp yoy). YTDFY19 PAF for NTPC coal based power station was 77.4% (-65bps yoy).  PAF has improved in recently commissioned power plants
• JSW Energy: PLF of JSW’s Vijaynagar power plant was 56.7% (+494 bps) while the Ratnagiri plant reported PLF of 80.9% (+774bp yoy). JSW is supplying in short term market from Vijayanagar TPP.
• Tata Power: Mundra’s PLF were 81.0% (+663bp yoy). YTDFY19 PAF was 75%, -50 bps yoy (normative is 80%). Maithon PLF was 81.2% (+2464bps yoy).  YTD PAF was 83% (normative is 85%).
• CESC: Budge Budge PLF was 80% (+235bps yoy), Haldia’s PLF was 88.2% (+100bp yoy) and Dhariwal PLF was 72.9% (+3582 bp yoy).  Dhariwal PLF has improved with flexi coal scheme PPA

·      Jindal Power: Tamnar–I’s PLF was 37.8% (+1252bp yoy) and Tamnar–II’s was 33.4% (-1242bp yoy).