Sector update: Media - Is Print growing marvelously?... and other IRS read-throughs!

As per the latest Indian Readership Survey (IRS) for 2017, last one-month readership (L1M) grew at an admirable ~38% at over 2014-17 (~11% CAGR). Hindi language newspapers posted robust ~45% growth during 2014-17 even as English language newspapers grew ~10% over the same period. Growth in L1M readership was seen across languages and age groups, especially among the younger groups (12-15 years, 16-19 years, and 20-29 years), who presumably prefer digital means of news consumption versus print. A robust measurement system bodes well for any medium, as advertisers are able to better measure the effectiveness of the medium. Such high growth in print would make national advertisers (local advertisers still advertise on perception and circulation) take note of the strength the medium has in India, despite being on a structural downtrend globally and is positive for the sector as a whole, in our view.

L1M important, but ‘Yesterday’ is key for advertisers: L1M readership is an important metric to understand the universe of readers for any particular newspaper. From an advertiser’s perspective, ‘Yesterday’ readership is more important as this is the number of readers who read a particular masthead daily and thereby the minimum number of readers exposed to an ad placed in the masthead. The IRS only talks about L1M barring in one place, where it mentions that overall ‘yesterday’ readership has grown at a meager ~0.6% over 2014-17. This is a scary statistic, as it potentially means that ‘yesterday’ readers in few languages have fallen in last three years (perhaps English or some other Indian language); also, growth in Hindi “yesterday” readership has not been as spectacular as is made out to be. We need more “yesterday” readership data, especially relative positioning of mastheads across states, to conclude anything. If ‘yesterday’ readership has fallen for certain languages or brands, then advertisers may need to recalibrate their spends.

India is getting wealthier

National Consumer Classification System (NCCS) categorizes consumer households as per education of the chief wage earner and number of consumer durables within such households (category A being better off while E being relatively worse off). As per IRS 2017, households in NCCS D & E have shrunk and that in NCCS B & C have increased. This essentially means that households are getting wealthier or more educated. This bodes well for overall consumer demand in the economy.

TV ownership has increased 14% since 2011 and has the highest reach among mediums

As per census 2011, TV ownership stood at 47% of households and as per IRS 2017 this has increased to 61%, which is quite encouraging and also revalidates the key thrust advertisers have reposed in this medium. In terms of last one-month reach, TV stood out at 75% within individuals aged 12+ years whereas newspapers stood at 39%, Radio and Internet stood at ~19% each and Cinema was ~3%.

We currently have an Outperformer on HT Media and DB Corp and a Neutral on Jagran Prakashan. We will follow up with a note on relative positioning of brands once ‘yesterday’ readership data is available.