Ørsted : An uninspiring publication but offshore reassures

>Good Q1 results on offshore but not so good on the rest - Yesterday, Ørsted published Q1 2024 EBITDA of DKK 7,488m (+8 %) vs DKK 7,700m estimated (ODDO BHF and the consensus). EBIT was DKK 5,065m (+13 %) vs DKK 5,200m (ODDO BHF) and DKK 5,400m (consensus). Adjusted net profit fell below expectations at DKK 2,609m (-19%) vs an average estimate of DKK 3,400m (ODDO BHF and the consensus). The poor performance at the net profit level was due the booking of a tax liabilit...

LNA Santé : CA T1 2024 : solide – Tarifs sanitaires 2024 peu encourage...

>CA T1 : une croissance organique robuste - LNA Santé publie un CA T1 à 189,3 M€, une hausse de 6,9% (+6,9% à ptc.). Le taux d’occupation des établissements en régime de croisière, hors HAD, ressort à 99%, en hausse de 1,6 point par rapport au T1 2023. LNA renouvelle son objectif de croissance organique à 4,5% soit un CA Exploitation de >750 M€ (ie. >+4,2%) pour une marge d’EBITDA hors IFRS à 11% (vs 10,8% en 2023). Toutefois, LNA insiste sur les derniers élément...

ING Group : Better Q1 commission income and marginally higher future d...

>Conclusion: Better Q1 commission and marginally higher future deposit margin - The € 2.5bn SBB was in line with consensus, showing ING does not change its SBB pace by the possible 13.5% effective SBB tax from 1/1/25. ING marginally increased its NII guidance for FY24 as a result of higher inflation/ECB rate expectations and limited deposit competition, which was already in our estimates. ING increased its deposit margin guidance for FY25-27 marginally by higher rates...

Vestas : Still plenty of unanswered questions

>Underperform rating (target price DKK 160) - Based on this release and the conference call, we maintain our expectations for 2024-2026 and our Underperform rating (despite a performance of -16% YTD), with an unchanged target price of DKK 160. While it is true that the situation is normalising, we see several risks, particularly with regard to the medium-term EBIT target (expected at 10%), given: The problems encountered by all players in the industry with new (o...

Technip Energies : High confidence in order intake for the next 24 mon...

>Outperform rating and target price of € 27 (unchanged) - Following the publication and conference call, we maintain our earnings forecasts unchanged. We reiterate our Outperform rating as well as our target price of € 27 despite three fine years of stock market outperformance. We highlight Technip Energies given: 1/ its positioning on LNG businesses (forthcoming acceleration in contract allocations); 2/ its position on transition energies (biofuels, CCS, etc.);...

Le consommateur a épuisé son excès d’épargne. Et après ?

Lors de la conférence de presse post-réunion du FOMC, ce qui n’est pas dit est parfois plus important que ce qui est dit. A plusieurs occasions, Jerome Powell a été interrogé sur la possibilité de reprendre les hausses de taux afin de peser sur l’inflation. Chaque fois, il s’est gardé d’envisager cette option. L’économie US évolue à un rythme solide mais qui n’accélère pas. Les signes de modération des conditions d’emploi sont même de plus en plus nombreux. A ce jour, la Fed cons...

Leifheit AG : Leifheit resolved share buyback programme with a total v...

>Announcement of share buyback programme - According to the press release from 2 May 2024, the board of management of Leifheit resolved with the approval of the supervisory board a share buyback programme with a total volume of up to € 8.5m (excl. transaction costs) and with an expected term from 13 May 2024 until 11 December 2024. The board of management is making use of the authorisation granted by the AGM on 30 September 2020, to acquire treasury shares of the comp...

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

2% adj. EBITA miss on lower org. sales

Santander : A robust start to 2024 and guidance confirmed

>Outperform rating maintained - Target price raised to € 5.5 (vs € 5.4) - Santander’s Q1 2024 results underpin our Outperform rating and lead us to increase our net profit estimates (+2% on average over the period 2024-2026e), due to a slightly more favourable stance on the top line trend. Our target price has thus been lifted to € 5.5 (vs € 5.4). The trend in the group’s operating performances remains broadly solid with the validation of the main financial targets se...

Royal BAM Group : Q1 2024 a soft quarter but investment case stands

>Lowering 2024 estimates, 2025-2026 unchanged, investment case stands - We maintain our Outperform rating and price target after the mixed/disappointing Q1 2024 results. We lower our 2024 adj. EBITDA by 6% (adj. EBITDA margin 4.6% instead of 4.8%) but keep our 2025 and 2026 largely unchanged. Despite the disappointment over the Q1 profitability levels, our investment case stands with slowly but surely improving operational and financial performance as the old lower ma...

Allianz : Solid operating profit expected in Q1 2024

>We are forecasting Q1 2024 operating profit of € 3.9bn - Allianz is due to report its Q1 2024 results on 15 May. We are forecasting operating profit of € 3,886m (+4.2%), in line with the consensus (€ 3,897m, +4.4%e). Q1 operating profit should, in our view, confirm the fact that Allianz should report a full-year operating profit at the upper end of the guidance range (€ 14.8bn, +/- € 1bn, bearing in mind that 1/4 of the average point of the target range is equivalent...

Dassault Systemes : 3DExperience should drive the acceleration in grow...

>A reasonably optimistic tone on Medidata - As expected, a significant part of the discussions with the CFO during this roadshow focused on the difficulties of Medidata (15% of Group sales). In Q2, the Medidata growth trend should be in line with Q1 (-2.5% cc). That said, Dassault Systèmes’ management sees signs of improvement on the commercial front: i/ bookings linked to the volume of clinical trials are up slightly; ii/ demand at mid-sized clients is stabilising an...

7% EBITDA beat in Q1

Linde plc : Soft FY 2024 and Q2 outlook leaving no upside to consensus...

>Q1 adj. EPS & adj. EBIT were 2% ahead of consensus, volumes down 1% y-o-y - Linde reported Q1 2024 adj. EPS increase of 10% y-o-y to $ 3.75 (+4% q-o-q), exceeding the upper end of previously provided Q1 2024 company guidance ($ 3.58-$ 3.68). Sales decreased by 1% y-o-y to $ 8.1bn in Q1 2024 in the wake of lower volumes (-1% y-o-y), while price/mix (+2% y-o-y) only offset the headwind from energy price pass-through (-2%). Food & Beverage (+6% y-o-y sales growth) and C...