Report
Raza Jafri ...
  • Yusra Beg
EUR 4.08 For Business Accounts Only

Intermarket Pulse: Pakistan Banks: Lower capital gains to drag 1QCY18 results

  • IMS Banking Universe (Big-5 private banks) is expected to post combined NPAT of PRs25.8bn in 1QCY18F, down 11%YoY. Our 1QCY18F EPS estimates are: HBL (PRs5.20, down 16%YoY); UBL (PRs5.40, down 12%YoY); MCB (PRs4.65, down 7%YoY); BAFL (PRs1.70, down 5%YoY); and ABL (PRs2.90, down 10%YoY). Note that we have not incorporated any impact of pension fund top-up for HBL and UBL in these projections.
  • Earnings drag is largely due to a high capital gains base, where 1QCY17 was the best quarter of the year for most banks. If capital gains are excluded, then 1QCY18F earnings are likely to be flat YoY. Other key features could be: (i) continued pressure on NIMs but higher NII on balance sheet growth, (ii) continued benign credit costs with reversals to extend for some banks and (iii) some rebound in fee income. 
  • Pakistan Banks have gained 13%CYTD. While we thematically like Banks on a medium-term horizon as interest rates rise, relatively weak prospects in CY18F underpin our Neutral stance. That said, we would avail entry points on dips in case upcoming results lead to profit taking. We prefer BAFL and MCB.
Underlyings
Allied Bank Ltd.

Allied Bank Ltd. Allied Bank Limited is engaged in providing commercial banking and related services. The Bank's segments include Corporate & investment banking, Trading and sales (Treasury), Commercial & retail banking and Others. The Corporate & investment banking segment offers a range of financial services to medium and large sized public and private sector entities, and also covers overseas operation of the Bank. These services include providing and arranging tenured financing, corporate advisory, underwriting, cash management, corporate finance products and customer services. The Trading and sales (Treasury) segment undertakes the Bank's treasury and money market activities. The Commercial & retail banking segment provides services to commercial and retail customers, including agriculture sector. The Commercial & retail banking segment offers loans, deposits and other transactions to commercial and retail customers. Its other services include phone banking and utility bill payments.

Bank Alfalah

Bank Alfalah Limited is a holding company. The Company's segments include Retail banking, including loans, deposits, trading activity, wealth management and other banking transactions with its retail and middle market customers; Corporate banking, which includes loans, deposits, project financing, trade financing, investment banking and other banking activities with its corporate and public sector customers; Treasury, including liquidity management activities carried out through borrowing, lending and money market operations; Consumer banking, including constitutes consumer financing activities with individual customers; Islamic banking, pertaining to its full scale Islamic Banking operations; International operations, which includes amounts related to its overseas operations, namely, commercial banking activities in Bangladesh and Afghanistan, and wholesale banking activities in the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Others, including merchant banking related activities.

Habib Bank Limited

Habib Bank Limited is engaged in commercial banking and asset management related services in Pakistan and overseas. The Bank's segments include Branch Banking, which consists of loans, deposits and other banking services to agriculture, consumer, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), and commercial customers; Corporate Banking, which consists of lending for project finance, trade finance and working capital to corporate customers and it also provides investment banking services, including services provided in connection with mergers and acquisitions; Treasury, which consists of trading, fixed income, equity, derivatives and foreign exchange businesses, and it also includes credit, lending and funding activities with professional market counterparties; International Banking, which is engaged in monitoring and reporting purposes and consists of its operations outside of Pakistan, and Head Office/Others. It operates in Pakistan; Europe, Middle East and America, and Asia and Africa.

MCB Bank Limited

Muslim Commercial Bank, and its subsidiaries, are engaged in commercial banking and the floating, administration and management of modaraba companies, modaraba funds and modarabas.

United Bank Limited

United Bank is engaged in commercial banking and related services. Co. operates five business segments: Corporate Finance, Trading and Sales, Retail Banking, Commercial Banking and Asset Management. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. operates 1,341 branches inside Pakistan including 47 Islamic Banking branches and 2 branches in Export Processing Zones, and 18 branches outside Pakistan.

Provider
Intermarket Securities Limited
Intermarket Securities Limited

​Intermarket Securities Limited (IMS) is a full service corporate brokerage firm based in Karachi, Pakistan. We service both domestic and international clients. IMS was ranked #2 Best Local Brokerage and #3 Best for Overall Country Research for 2016 by AsiaMoney.

Analysts
Raza Jafri

Yusra Beg

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