Report
Shumaila Badar
EUR 172.78 For Business Accounts Only

Updating Target Prices on Revised Expectations

Following a number of negative surprises posted in the last earnings season, we have updated our earnings estimates and target prices for the Banks under our coverage. The major reason why Banks missed our expectations was that their respective net interest margins were unable to expand as we had expected. We now expect further contraction in 4QCY18, and an expansion from 1QCY19 onwards. We expect earnings for most banks to improve in CY19 due to (i) NIM expansion, (ii) continued earning assets growth, (iii) absence of pension expense under the pension case, and (iv) lower Super Tax. On the other hand we expect greater administrative expenses (with the exception of HBL), higher provisions for NPLs charge, and lower capital gains income to restrain earnings growth. The table on the right gives our new target prices and  earnings estimates for the Banks under our coverage. Please note that we have in the past few weeks already updated our TPs for HBL and UBL, and we have not changed them here in this report. Nevertheless, they have been included in this report for easy reference. Please not that we expect a further policy rate hike of 150bps hike in the next three months before interest rates stabilize.

Underlyings
Allied Bank Ltd.

Allied Bank Ltd. Allied Bank Limited is engaged in providing commercial banking and related services. The Bank's segments include Corporate & investment banking, Trading and sales (Treasury), Commercial & retail banking and Others. The Corporate & investment banking segment offers a range of financial services to medium and large sized public and private sector entities, and also covers overseas operation of the Bank. These services include providing and arranging tenured financing, corporate advisory, underwriting, cash management, corporate finance products and customer services. The Trading and sales (Treasury) segment undertakes the Bank's treasury and money market activities. The Commercial & retail banking segment provides services to commercial and retail customers, including agriculture sector. The Commercial & retail banking segment offers loans, deposits and other transactions to commercial and retail customers. Its other services include phone banking and utility bill payments.

Bank AL-Habib

Bank AL Habib Limited is a banking company. The Bank operates through Retail banking, Commercial banking, Retail brokerage and geographical segments. Its Retail banking consists of retail lending, deposits and banking services to private individuals and small businesses. The retail banking activities include provision of banking and other financial services, such as current and savings accounts, and credit cards to individual customers, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Its Commercial banking represents provision of banking services, including treasury and international trade-related activities to corporate customers, multinational companies, and government and semi government departments and institutions. Its Retail brokerage activities include the business of equity, money market and foreign exchange brokerage, equity research, and corporate financial advisory and consultancy services. It operates in four geographic regions: Pakistan, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and Africa.

Bank Alfalah

Bank Alfalah Limited is a holding company. The Company's segments include Retail banking, including loans, deposits, trading activity, wealth management and other banking transactions with its retail and middle market customers; Corporate banking, which includes loans, deposits, project financing, trade financing, investment banking and other banking activities with its corporate and public sector customers; Treasury, including liquidity management activities carried out through borrowing, lending and money market operations; Consumer banking, including constitutes consumer financing activities with individual customers; Islamic banking, pertaining to its full scale Islamic Banking operations; International operations, which includes amounts related to its overseas operations, namely, commercial banking activities in Bangladesh and Afghanistan, and wholesale banking activities in the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Others, including merchant banking related activities.

Habib Bank Limited

Habib Bank Limited is engaged in commercial banking and asset management related services in Pakistan and overseas. The Bank's segments include Branch Banking, which consists of loans, deposits and other banking services to agriculture, consumer, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), and commercial customers; Corporate Banking, which consists of lending for project finance, trade finance and working capital to corporate customers and it also provides investment banking services, including services provided in connection with mergers and acquisitions; Treasury, which consists of trading, fixed income, equity, derivatives and foreign exchange businesses, and it also includes credit, lending and funding activities with professional market counterparties; International Banking, which is engaged in monitoring and reporting purposes and consists of its operations outside of Pakistan, and Head Office/Others. It operates in Pakistan; Europe, Middle East and America, and Asia and Africa.

MCB Bank Limited

Muslim Commercial Bank, and its subsidiaries, are engaged in commercial banking and the floating, administration and management of modaraba companies, modaraba funds and modarabas.

National Bank of Pakistan

National Bank of Pakistan (the Bank) is a Pakistan-based commercial bank. The Bank provides commercial banking services, including commercial loans, investment advisory, asset management, global remittances, agency services, forex, leasing, modarba, underwriting, brokerage, and other banking and financial services. The Bank offers retail products, which include saving deposits, current deposits, housing finance, personal loans and agricultural loans; transaction banking services, which include cash management, trade finance and services, and remittance management; Corporate Finance services, which include deposits, structured corporate finance, capital advisory, investment advisory and trade finance; Treasury services, which include forex and financial derivatives, and government to person (G2P) services, which include pension payments, tax and fee collection, and other payments. The Bank serves its customers in over 20 countries.

United Bank Limited

United Bank is engaged in commercial banking and related services. Co. operates five business segments: Corporate Finance, Trading and Sales, Retail Banking, Commercial Banking and Asset Management. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. operates 1,341 branches inside Pakistan including 47 Islamic Banking branches and 2 branches in Export Processing Zones, and 18 branches outside Pakistan.

Provider
Ismail Iqbal Securities
Ismail Iqbal Securities

Ismail Iqbal Securities (Private) Limited (IISPL) is a TREC holder of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, as well as an SECP registered Underwriter and Book Runner. IISPL provides comprehensive financial services including Equity Sales, Research on Equities and the Macro-Economy, Investment Advisory, Portfolio Management, Corporate Finance, and extensive services for Private Equity investors. IISPL services a diversified client base, from Institutional to Retail Investors including High Net worth Individuals.

Analysts
Shumaila Badar

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