After the market kerfuffle surrounding the April FOMC minutes, recent Fedspeak has been fairly subdued.   This allowed MIG an opportunity to more fully assess the Fed’s data dependence and what it means going forward. We have identified four conditions that need to be met before another rate increase.
Most of these conditions are fairly close to being met. However, one of them – rising inflation - remains somewhat controversial. Though labor markets have tightened significantly and financial conditions favorable for the most part, inflation remains quite dormant. With the US economy rebounding and disinflationary impulses from abroad receding, conditions seem ideal for inflation to rise imminently and that brings us to the critical question...
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