While a rate increase will be up for discussion at September’s meeting, the FOMC will not pull the trigger just yet. Instead, we are maintaining our longstanding call of a Fed rate increase at December’s meeting.
The different signals emanating from Fed speakers, statements and forecasts have been misinterpreted as “poor Fed communication strategy†by media and talking heads. In actuality, this is a true, real-time reflection of the range of views on a divided committee.
September will not disappoint in this regard. The statement will be supportive of rate hikes soon – and viewed as hawkish. Meanwhile, the revised dot plots will be unmistakably dovish showing fewer rate hikes this year and next.​
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