On Your Mark, Get Set...
MIG’s longstanding call for an “Apologetic Increase†in December appears to be materializing. Fed policy makers will be reassured by rising inflation expectations and today’s strong headline Q3 GDP print
With markets pricing in >75% probability, December policy action is inching closer to being a foregone conclusion. The Fed will not need to align market expectations with its own - as it did ahead of last year’s rate hike. Hence, we expect a more understated nod to December policy action from next week’s statement and it is unlikely to cause ripples in currency or rates markets.
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