Markets have responded to last year’s US election outcome with much optimism and high expectations MIG has been far less sanguine about President Trump’s ability to effect positive changes in the economy. Over recent weeks, markets have reconsidered their view and we do the same here.
Overall, there are three main takeaways from MIG’s reassessment of Trump:
·There is little economic upside with proposed Trump tax cuts
·Trump’s inclination to constrain the flow of goods and people across borders presents considerable risks to long-term US growth and corporate profitability
·Perhaps the only thing markets should count on, are higher long term interest rates due to substantially larger fiscal deficits
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