Sneaking a Peek at 2017
​This week we glance at our crystal ball and take an initial look at 2017. MIG expects US economic growth to remain sluggish but for inflation to move upward steadily.
However, the real story of 2017 will be the sharp dovish tilt of the FOMC. With three of the staunchest inflation hawks rotating out of the voting ranks next year, the bias of the FOMC will be considerably more dovish. This portends greater tolerance for inflation overshooting the Fed’s 2% target and a higher bar for further rate hikes. It also means the end of the policy divergence theme that has (at times) buoyed USD and impacted US rates.
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