The Fed's Unwritten Rules
​The Fed appears to be on track to raise interest rates in December – in line with our longstanding call. Indeed, the FOMC’s Big Three has endorsed increasing rates fairly soon and some prominent Fed doves have softened their opposition.Â
However, this recent hardening of Fed rhetoric has come amidst squishy inflation and employment data.  Isn’t the Fed supposed to be data dependent? How can they be considering raising rates when inflation is stagnant?
We identify two reasons for this: a sharply divided committee and the Fed's own unwritten rules.
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