​This week’s solid PMI and jobs data indicate the US economy has rebounded well from its late summer swoon and our longstanding call for a December rate hike remains firmly on track.
The FOMC remains deeply divided, however, and several doves are likely to oppose any rate hikes at all. Fed Chair Yellen would strongly prefer to raise rates with a near-unanimous consensus. In order to achieve this, she will have to construct a “Grand Compromise†to get as many Fed doves on board as possible. This week’s note explores what such a compromise may look like and what rationales may persuade FOMC doves to support policy action in December.
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