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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q4 2018

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q4 2018

Summary

Global Risk Report is based on MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from MarketLine Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, MarketLine analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

The seventh update version of MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) Q4 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Switzerland and Sweden. 29 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 36 countries in the low risk zone, 37 countries under manageable risk, 34 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in MLCRI Q4 2018.

Scope

- Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. India, Malaysia and Pakistan registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Bhutan, Kyrgyzstan and Nepal increased in Q4 2018 over the last update (Q2 2018).
- Europe is the lowest risk region in the world. The risk score of the European region witnessed a marginal increase in Q4 2018 on the back of increasing political and economic tensions such as uncertain Brexit, looming economic crisis in Italy, among others. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Romania, Serbia and Iceland whereas overall risk increased in Slovakia, Bosnia and Belarus in MLCRI Q4 2018 update.
- The risk score of the Americas also increased in Q4 2018 over the previous update in Q2 2018 as a result of vulnerability of Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Argentina. The 35 day government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019 has caused severe damage to the US economy. Jamaica, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in Colombia and Uruguay increased in Q4 2018
- The Middle Eastern and African regions also recorded a rise in the risk score in Q4 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risks due to scandals regarding Saudi Arabia, sanctions on Iran and a weak economic performance in the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Egypt, Algeria and Kuwait whereas overall risk increased in Lebanon, Tanzania and Rwanda in MLCRI Q4 2018 update.

Reasons to buy

- Global Risk Report is based on MarketLine Country Risk Index (MLCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
- The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from MarketLine Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, MarketLine analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.