Report
Swarnendu Bhushan

MOSL: BPCL (Neutral)-Adjusted EBITDA above estimate- GRM at USD4.9/bbl

​BPCL: Adjusted EBITDA above estimate; GRM at USD4.9/bbl

(BPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD7.2b, CMP INR484, TP INR515, 6% Upside, Neutral)

  • -BPCL's reported EBITDA of INR12b (-70% YoY, -45% QoQ) was lower than our estimate of INR19b due to product inventory loss of INR7.3b during the quarter. EBITDA adjusted for product inventory loss stood at INR19.5b, ahead of our estimate. Reported GRM (inclusive of crude inventory gain/loss) stood at USD4.9/bbl. The company reported forex gain of INR292m v/s gain of INR332m in 4QFY17 and loss of INR1.7b in 1QFY17. Reported PAT stood at INR7.4b (est. of INR11.6b; -72% YoY; -60% QoQ), partly benefiting from higher other income of INR6.6b (est. of INR5.5b; +231% YoY, -1% QoQ).
  • -GRM at USD4.9/bbl was lower than our estimate of USD5.5/bbl. GRM was USD6/bbl in 4QFY17 and USD6.1/bbl in 1QFY17.
  • -Domestic sales volume grew 3% YoY (+8% QoQ) to 10mmt in 1QFY18. Throughput in 1QFY18 was 6.4mmt v/s 6.0mmt in 4QFY17 and 6.2mmt in 1QFY17.


Underlying
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

Bharat Petroleum refines crude oil and markets petroleum products in India. Co. offers fuels and services, as well as lubricants, including automotive engine oils, gear oils, transmission oils, specialty oils, and greases; and liquid and gaseous fuels, illuminating oils, and other products from crude petroleum or bituminous minerals. Co. is engaged in the retailing of petrol, diesel, and kerosene. Co. also imports and exports fuel oil, naphtha, and base oil. Co. serves household and automobile sectors; public and private sectors; and various government establishments, such as defense, railways, state trading corporations, state electricity boards.

Provider
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

​Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a reputed name in Financial Services and Online Trading with group companies providing services such as Private Wealth Management, Retail Broking and Distribution, Institutional Broking, Asset Management, Investment Banking, Private Equity, Commodity Broking, Currency Broking, Principal Strategies & Home Finance. 

Motilal Oswal Securities is a group company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Limited which started as a stock trading company and has blossomed into well diversified firm offering a range of financial products and services. Motilal Oswal has built a reputation as the source for best stock trading company and this has taken a wealth of experience, knowledge and expertise, constantly working in tandem, over the years.

Analysts
Swarnendu Bhushan

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