MOSL: HINDUSTAN MEDIA VENTURES (Buy)-Lackluster growth, but outlook improving

Hindustan Media Ventures: Lackluster growth, but outlook improving

(HMVL IN, Mkt Cap USD0.3b, CMP INR266, TP INR305, 15% Upside, Buy)

• Muted revenue growth: 3QFY18 revenue came in flat YoY (9% QoQ) at INR2.3b (in line v/s est. of INR2.35b), despite a low base (3QFY17 was impacted by demonetization), largely due to (i) shift of Diwali ad spends to 2Q this year and (ii) lackluster local ad spend due to GST-related uncertainty. EBITDA increased 43% YoY (+29% QoQ) to INR583m (est. of INR439m), as 3QFY17 included high one-off expense related to HT Digital hive-off. EBITDA margin expanded 760bp YoY to 25.3%. PAT rose 12%/20% YoY/QoQ (at a slower rate than EBITDA) to INR493m on a high tax rate.
• Subdued ad and circulation growth: Ad spend recovered partly from the FMCG, auto, banking and finance sectors, while real estate and government were laggards (overall ad growth was 4%, of which 3% was contributed by volumes and 1% by yield). Circulation segment, on the contrary, witnessed a steep 14% revenue decline, though HMVL stated it maintained market share in UP and Bihar.
• Worst behind; management expects healthy growth: Management indicated that the ad growth outlook is improving, which should lead to healthy single-digit growth. However, 4QFY18 could see the impact of a high base (UP election ads in 4QFY17). Circulation yield improvement across industry (to pass on firming newsprint prices) may insulate margins.