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MOSL: BIRLA CORPORATION (Buy)-Pricing weakness in east impacts margins

Birla Corporation: Pricing weakness in east impacts margins

(BCORP IN, Mkt Cap USD0.8b, CMP INR753, TP INR950, 26% Upside, Buy)

 

Capacity addition to drive growth

  • EBITDA/ton was up 33% YoY (-12% QoQ) in 3QFY20, led by higher realizations (+4% YoY) and cost savings (+2% YoY). While BCORP witnessed some decline in trade sales due to seasonality, it remains focused on higher trade/premium cement sales and cost efficiencies over the longer term.
  • Upcoming capacities bode well for volume/margin improvement, in our view. We maintain our FY20/21 estimates and Buy 

EBITDA miss due to higher-than-estimated cost

  • volumes were up ~7.2% YoY at 3.43mt (our estimate: 3.34mt).
  • Cement realizations increased 4% YoY (-1.4% QoQ) to INR4,743/t. BCORP witnessed a sharp decline in prices in the eastern region.
  • Net sales were up 10% YoY at INR17.2b (our estimate: INR16.6b).
  • Total cost/ton was up 1% QoQ (-2% YoY) at INR4,141 (3% above our estimate of INR4,040). Note that consumption of higher-cost clinker inventory offset the benefit of lower power & fuel and freight costs.
  • EBITDA/ton declined 12% QoQ (+33% YoY) to INR859 (9% below our estimate of INR946).
  • EBITDA stood at INR2.9b (+42% YoY, -6% QoQ) v/s our estimate of INR3.2b.
  • PAT stood at INR815m (3x of FY19), 10% below our estimate of INR903m.
Underlying
Birla

Birla is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement in India. Co.'s Cement division offers various cements, such as ordinary portland cement, 43 and 53 grades, portland pozzolana cement, fly ash – based PPC, low alkali portland cement, portland slag cement, low heat cement, and sulphate resistant cement. Its Jute division provides a range of products, including jute yarn, floor and wall covering, lino hessian, decorative fabrics, nursery cloth, scrim, jute carpets, non-woven jute felt, hydrocarbon-free bags/cloth, D.W. canvas, carpet backing cloth, hessian cloth/bags, and sacking bags/cloth.

Provider
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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