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MOSL: CIPLA (Neutral)-Weak 4Q-Margin improvement is key

​Cipla: Weak 4Q; Margin improvement is key

(CIPLA IN, Mkt Cap USD6.2b, CMP INR504, TP INR500, 1% Downside, Neutral)

  • 4QFY17 revenue grew 10% YoY to INR35.8b (~6% miss). EBITDA came in at INR5.1b, with the margin at 14.1% (+60bp YoY, -440bp QoQ). The weak margin performance is attributed to subdued growth in India (-10% YoY) and high R&D spend (8.8% of sales; +~170bp v/s 9MFY17). Adj. PAT of INR2.01b was ~44.5% below our estimate due to muted sales and weak margins.
  • FY18 guidance – double-digit revenue growth, margin improvement: In FY17, CIPLA grew revenue by 10%, with EBITDA margin at 16.9% (had guided for 16-18%). For FY18, the company has guided for double-digit growth in revenue with margin improvement (our est. of 15%) on the back of strong ramp-up in US sales and double-digit growth in the domestic business.
  • Strong growth outlook for US; domestic business to be impacted by GST: US business grew 65% YoY in 4Q. CIPLA expects key approvals in FY18, with at least one limited-competition product per quarter starting 2Q (incl. Sevelamer, Nano-paclitaxel and Albuterol MDI), which should help drive US sales. Domestic business declined 10% YoY due to destocking at the channel. GST will impact domestic business growth for at least one quarter in FY18. 


Underlying
Cipla Limited

Cipla is a global pharmaceutical company based in India. Co. manufactures over 1,000 pharmaceutical products for therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, children's health, dermatology and cosmetology, diabetes, human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immuno deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), infectious diseases and others. Co.'s operations are organized along four business units: Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API - 200 generic and complex APIs); Respiratory (inhalation therapy); Cipla Global Access (HIV/AIDS, malaria, multi drug-resistant tuberculosis, and reproductive health); and Veterinary. Co.'s products are sold in India, Africa, Middle East, Europe, Americas, Asia and Australia.

Provider
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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