ECOSCOPE: Economic activity remained subdued in July 2017; Better than in June, but weaker than in previous months
​ECOSCOPE: Economic activity remained subdued in July 2017; Better than in June, but weaker than in previous months
India’s monthly economic activity index (EAI) grew 4.3% YoY in July 2017, faster than 0.8% growth in June, but slower than April-May average growth of ~5%.
Details show that the improvement over June was broad-based; however, consumption growth was still lower than in the previous months. Investment grew ~2% YoY in July, representing the fastest growth in four months.
After real GDP growth slipped below 6% in 1QFY18, July numbers do not suggest any significant uptick. However, with the festive season beginning early this year (Diwali in mid-October rather than early-November normally), we believe that August and September could witness a pick-up in the economy. Consequently, we expect real GDP growth to pick up to ~6.5% YoY in 2QFY18.
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