MOSL: HDFC BANK (Buy)-Steady quarter-fee growth surprises positively

HDFC Bank: Steady quarter; fee growth surprises positively

(HDFCB IN, Mkt Cap USD79.0b, CMP INR1961, TP INR2400, 22% Upside, Buy)

• HDFCB reported 24% YoY core PPoP growth (in-line; 21% PPoP growth on muted capital gains of INR220m), led by steady revenue growth and controlled opex. However, higher provisions (INR15.4b, 15% miss owing to a contingent provision towards an agri account) resulted in 20% YoY PAT growth.
• Loans grew 19% YoY (+3% QoQ) to INR6.58t. Incremental growth in the quarter was driven by retail loans (6.0%/30% QoQ/YoY), resulting in an increase in its loan mix share to 69.7%. Post 4 quarters of trailing loan growth, deposits grew faster than advances at 22.5% YoY to INR7.89t, bringing down credit deposit ratio to 83% (90% in 3QFY18).
• Other income reported robust 23% YoY growth to INR42.3b (12% beat), led by 32% YoY growth in fees and commissions, while treasury gains were muted at INR0.22b vs INR1.8b in 4QFY17. Total core other income grew 29% YoY. Opex grew 16% YoY to INR60.6b (5% miss), partly offsetting the other income beat; cost to core income declined 46bp QoQ to 40.7%
• CASA deposits grew 12% YoY, but term deposits registered a robust 33% YoY growth, leading to CASA ratio declining 50bp QoQ to 43.5%. Reported NIM was stable at 4.3%
• GNPL increased by 5% QoQ, but the bank improved its PCR to 69.8% (66% in 3Q), leading to 6% decline in NNPA.