Morning India (21/April/20):
Today’s top research idea
Oil & Gas: Global energy markets facing unprecedented crisis
**Due to its own share of issues regarding storage and lack of demand, WTI May futures crashed to a low of -USD36.9/bbl yesterday night before recovering to USD1.6/bbl.
**Global crude oil benchmarks are at nearly two-decade lows as >90% of the world is under lockdown, with economies at a complete standstill.
**Even China, which declared its 1QCY20 GDP data, highlighted a contraction in the economy for the first time since 1992.
**OPEC+ has recently announced a record production cut of 9.7mnbopd starting May'20; however, the announcement has failed to excite the oil markets.
**Efforts to ramp up the economy once the lockdown has been lifted may take a toll as the lack of employees as well as demand may strike down hard on industrial activity.
**In light of the recent raucous data sets, we further revise down our Brent price forecast to USD40/50/bbl (from USD52.5/60/bbl) for FY21/22 respectively.
Piping hot news
Oil Trades Below Zero Across U.S. as Futures Market Craters
Oil traded below $0 a barrel across the U.S. after the futures market suffered its worst price crash in history. Barrels from the country’s biggest shale plays and offshore grades are pricing in negative territory, with buyers asking to be paid for taking crude away. The meltdown follows the worst day of trading in U.S. history, in which New York oil futures plummeted to an unprecedented negative $37.63 a barrel. The market was already under pressure as storage across the country fills and the coronavirus pandemic obliterates energy demand.
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