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MOSL: AUTOMOBILE | Apr-17 Sales Estimates-PV to outperform 2W and CV-Strong demand of new products to drive PV sales

​AUTOMOBILE | Apr-17 Sales Estimates: PV to outperform 2W and CV; Strong demand of new products to drive PV sales

PV to continue its growth momentum and outperform the auto industry growth in Apr-17. 2W and CVs volume is expected to decline in Apr-17 YoY and MoM. Our channel check suggests, retail off-take in 2W segment is expected to remain weak followed by pre-buy of BS-3 vehicles in the previous month.

Key highlights:

Maruti Suzuki is expected to outperform the PV industry, while we expect Ashok Leyland and TVS to outperform the CV and 2W industry respectively.

PVs to continue its growth trajectory and outperform auto industry growth led by MISL, which we expect to report ~8% growth in its overall volumes in Apr-17. The growth in MSIL volumes will be led by strong demand of Baleno and Brezza. Our channel check indicates these models still enjoys healthy waiting period of 5-7weeks.

Tata Motors PV segment is expected to maintain strong growth momentum driven by Tiago and complimented by newly launched Tigor.

In the 2W segment, we expect TVSL is likely to record a 5.9% YoY increase in volumes led by strong growth in its scooters and mopeds portfolio. While, HMCL’s volumes are expected to decline 5.3% YoY, we expect Bajaj Auto volumes to decline sharply by 17.8% led by decline in domestic 2W and 3W volumes.