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MOSL: AUTOMOBILES | July 2017 volumes-1. Maruti Suzuki 2. Mahindra & Mahindra 3. Tata Motors 4. EICHER Motors 5. Ashok Leyland

​AUTOMOBILES | July 2017 volumes: 1. Maruti Suzuki; 2. Mahindra & Mahindra; 3. Tata Motors; 4. EICHER Motors; 5. Ashok Leyland; 6. Hero MotoCorp; 7. TVS Motor;

1. Maruti Suzuki: Volumes of 165k units (+21% YoY) above est. of 150k; Domestic vols up by strong ~22% YoY, driven by UV and mini segments; exports remain flat

• ​MSIL’s Jul-17 wholesales surprised positively, reaching the highest-ever level of 165,346 units (v/s est. of 150,140 units; +20.6% YoY, +55.4% MoM). YTD growth was 15%, with residual monthly run-rate at 152.7k units.
  
• Domestic volumes grew ~22% YoY (+65% MoM) to 154k (v/s est. 140k), led by growth in the UV and mini segments.
  
• Mini segment reported healthy volumes (~21% growth), led by expectation of normal monsoon.
  
• The compact segment grew 18% YoY, led by Baleno and New Dzire sales.
  
• Mid-size segment led by Ciaz increased ~24% YoY, despite an increase in prices due to higher taxes on hybrid cars post GST. Ciaz clocked sales of 6,377 units.
  
• UVs continued their momentum, with ~48% YoY growth, primarily aided by incremental volumes of Vitara Brezza, which continues to enjoy a waiting period of 20 weeks.
  
• Export volumes remained flat at 11,345 units (v/s est. 10,000 units).
  
• The stock trades at 28x/20.9x FY18E/19E consolidated EPS of ~INR281/375. Maintain Buy.
  

2. Mahindra & Mahindra: Vols up 6% YoY to 60,579 units (in line v/s est. of 61,200); Tractor growth at 7% YoY, while UV growth at ~9%

• ​Jul-17 volumes increased 6% YoY to 60,579 units (v/s est. 61,200 units), supported by ~9% YoY growth in UVs and just 7% growth in tractor segment.
  
• Tractor sales were 18,832 units (below est. of 22,000 units), registering ~7% YoY growth (-43% MoM), helped by domestic tractor sales growth of 7% YoY to 16,452 units, while exports at 1,101 units grew by only 4% YoY.
  
• UV (incl. pick-ups) sales increased ~9% YoY to 36,708 units (v/s est. of 34,500 units).
  
• The momentum in pick-ups continued with 13% YoY growth, while passenger utility vehicles also recovered with strong growth of 21% YoY.
  
• LCV (>3.5t) and M&HCV sales increased by 9% and 72% YoY, respectively. MHCV sales continue to remain robust for MM.
  
• 3W volumes are recovering gradually, with growth of ~48% MoM to 3,777 units (v/s est. 3,500 units).