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MOSL: Automobiles July 2018 Wholesale volumes

Automobiles July 2018 Wholesale volumes

 

1. Maruti Suzuki

Wholesale dispatches in-line at 164.4k units; Domestic sales remained flat YoY, while exports declined 9.9% YoY

• MSIL's July 2018 wholesales were in line with our estimate at 164.4k units (flat YoY, 13.4% MoM).
• Domestic volumes remained flat YoY at 154.2k units (our estimate: 161.8k), led by lower than expected sales in the compact and mid-size segment.
• Compact segment sales came in at 74.4k units (our estimate: 80k units).
• Ciaz sales declined 96.8% YoY to 48 units (our estimate: 1.5k units) due to phase out of existing model before new launch.
• Export volumes were in-line at 10.2k units (-9.9% YoY; +9.7% MoM).
• The stock trades at 30x/22.8x FY19E/20E earnings. Maintain Buy.

Tata Motors

Wholesales at 56.9k units, below estimate of 59.2k; Strong growth in CV continues

• Tata Motors' Jul-18 sales volumes grew 23% YoY to 56.9k units, below our estimate of 59.2k units.
• Total CV volumes increased 27% YoY to 39.6k units v/s est ~40.6k).  
• M&HCV volumes grew 20% YoY to 15.3k units (in-line).
• LCV volumes increased 32% YoY to 24.2k units (est. of 25.5k units).
• UV volumes grew 102% YoY to 5.7k units (est. of 6.15k units) due to healthy demand for Nexon.
• Car segment volumes declined 6% YoY to 11.5k units (est. of 12.5k units).
• The stock trades at 8.8x/6.9x FY19E/20E consol. EPS. Maintain Buy.