CEMENT: Demand weakness persists; prices decline further in south, east; Near-term pricing outlook bleak
** According to our recent channel checks, cement demand remains weak across India, limiting the possibility of a price hike over the near term.
** After rising sharply earlier in the year, all-India cement prices have corrected ~9% since May and are now up by only ~5% YoY owing to the continued price decline in south and east. On a YoY basis, prices are down ~1% in east, flat in south and up by a marginal 4% in west. However, the pricing trends are impressive in the north (up ~11%) and central (up ~13% YoY) regions.
** We nevertheless believe that the sharp reduction in energy costs will likely cushion the negative impact on industry margins over the near term, as both petcoke and imported coal prices have corrected sharply.
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