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MOSL: ECONOMY – BRICS+: 4QCY19 - India vis-à-vis other emerging markets (EMs)

ECONOMY – BRICS+: 4QCY19 - India vis-à-vis other emerging markets (EMs)

 

The year 2019 saw weakening growth and muted inflation, which led to monetary easing and fiscal expansion in most emerging markets (EMs). The risk-return matrix based on macro indicators (GDP growth, inflation, current account deficit and fiscal deficit) worsened in 6 out of ten EMs in 2019 – namely, CN, ID, KR, SA, TW and TH. For all EMs, equity indices increased in 2019 (barring Thailand), while bond yields declined sharply (except for SA and TW). Interestingly, all EM currencies strengthened against the USD in 4QCY19, except for the Indian Rupee (INR). Despite EMs witnessing declining exports (barring IN and SA), rising forex reserves and lower imports improved the import cover and liquidity ratio in most EMs. However, only some EMs saw external vulnerability reduce.

 

This quarterly publication provides a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic conditions in the world’s 10 major EMs. Quite often, these economies are clubbed together as a basket, especially in terms of portfolio allocation.

 

The 10 EMs included in this publication are:

1. Brazil (BR), 2. China (CN), 3. India (IN), 4. Indonesia (ID), 5. South Korea (KR), 6. Malaysia (MY), 7. Russia (RU), 8. South Africa (SA), 9. Taiwan (TW), 10. Thailand (TH).