MOSL: ECOSCOPE | 3Q 2018-India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook; Macros appear to have deteriorated
ECOSCOPE | 3Q 2018: India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook; Macros appear to have deteriorated
- India's macros seem to have deteriorated following a series of events during the past quarter. With higher crude oil prices and significant withdrawal of foreign capital, India's balance of payments (BoP) has weakened substantially, exerting serious pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR).
- Further, with the government approving MSPs hikes for Kharif crops to equate them to 1.5x of the cost of production, inflationary pressures have risen, pushing year-end CPI inflation higher by up to 50bp. This, in our view, might translate into another rate hike on 1st August 2018.
- We, however, have kept our FY19 real GDP growth forecasts unchanged.
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