EUR 125.00 For Business Accounts Only

MOSL: ECOSCOPE-Best-ever real GDP growth of 20.1% YoY in 1QFY22; Expect real GDP growth of 7-8% YoY in 2QFY22

ECOSCOPE: Best-ever real GDP growth of 20.1% YoY in 1QFY22; Expect real GDP growth of 7-8% YoY in 2QFY22

 

• Real GDP/GVA grew 20.1%/18.8% YoY in 1QFY22 (v/s our forecast and the Bloomberg consensus of 21%/19.6%). The number is also marginally lower than the RBI forecast of 21.4% YoY for 1QFY22.
• Growth in real GDP was largely attributable to 13.8% YoY growth in consumption and 56.7% YoY growth in Gross Capital Formation (GCF). Within consumption, it was mainly private consumption that grew 19.3% YoY in 1QFY22, thus contributing 10.7pp to overall GDP. Government consumption, however, contracted 4.8% YoY in 1QFY22 (v/s 12.7% YoY in 1QFY21), leading to a negative contribution of 0.8pp. GCF contributed 14.5pp to overall GDP growth in 1QFY22. Within GCF, real investments, namely GFCF and change in inventory, grew 55.3% and 45.9% YoY, respectively, in 1QFY22 on account of the low base of 1QFY21. As for external trade, while exports grew 39.1% YoY in 1QFY22, imports grew faster by 60.2% YoY. Therefore, external trade contributed negatively to overall GDP.
• Nominal GDP grew 31.7% YoY in 1QFY22, against a contraction of 22.3% YoY in 1QFY21.
• The Farm sector grew 4.5% YoY in 1QFY22, contributing 0.8pp to overall GVA. The Industrial sector, on the other hand, exhibited dramatic growth of 46.1% YoY in 1QFY22, leading to a contribution of 11.4pp to GVA. All the subcomponents within the industry – mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, and construction – grew sharply last quarter on the low base. The Services sector also grew 11.4% YoY in 1QFY22, contributing 6.5pp to overall GVA growth.