MOSL: ECOSCOPE-CPI inflation hits seven-month high in October-Vegetable, housing inflation surges
​ECOSCOPE: CPI inflation hits seven-month high in October; Vegetable, housing inflation surges; core inflation unchanged
- CPI inflation inched up to 3.6% YoY in October 2017, higher than consensus of 3.4%, but lower than our estimate of 3.8%. This was the highest level of inflation in seven months.
- The rise was largely driven by a surge in vegetable inflation to a 15-month high of 7.5% in October 2017. Food inflation increased to 1.9% from 1.3% in September 2017.
- Core inflation remained unchanged versus the preceding month at 4.6% in October. Although housing inflation surged to 6.7%, it was offset by a decline in inflation in the transport & communication group. Inflation in core services declined to a record low of 3.4% in October 2017.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise toward 4.5% and core inflation to touch 5% by Jan-Feb 2018. Accordingly, we do not expect any rate cut in the remaining part of FY18.
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